On 16 September the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is planning to release a new macroeconomic forecast. According to Ksenia Yudaeva, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, this will be done after the regulator’s board of directors has decided on the key rate.
She was asked a question whether the Central Bank had remained unchanged the inflation forecast about 5-6 percent in the current year. Yudaeva said: “We have just begun the discussion of the forecast, so the new forecast will be published on 16 September. We are going to publish a new forecast. “
Yudaeva urges to wait in order to see if the inflation forecast will be changed or not.
Earlier the representatives of the Central Bank of Russia reported that the forecast about 5-6 per cent for the year remained unchanged.
The previous forecast of the Central Bank of Russia was published in June. In this forecast the regulator improved the assessment of the Russian economy development, including oil prices, GDP and the inflation.
“We will discuss, of course, the oil price forecast, too. In principle, we can observe some stability there,” – said the deputy chairman of the Central Bank on Thursday.
Yudaeva left some questions without the answer. In particular, she didn’t say if there was something that made obstacles for the Central Bank to lower the rate. And we still wonder whether the regulator’s decision will be influenced by better expectations regarding the inflation of the last month.
Yudaeva said that the Russian Central Bank took into account the risks that were associated with the budget deficit.
“We always take into account in our forecasts what is happening with the budget deficit and how it is financed. Of course, we study and consider all these questions. We always separately allocate the risks associated with the budget in our press release. ”
In addition, Ksenia Yudaeva said that the matter of the issue of coupon bonds of Bank of Russia ( OBR ) before the end of that year had not been solved yet.
“You see, we are able to attract deposits, so in this sense these tools are a bit interchangeable and we have an opportunity to discuss coupon bonds of Bank of Russia.”
At the end of the last month the Central Bank of Russia said that it continued to think about the placement of the trial edition of the coupon bonds with a floating rate tied to the key one before the end of the year. However, market participants are still hoping that the Central Bank may change their mind and attach the coupon to the unsecured bank lending rate RUONIA. This will help to form the yield curve for this type of securities.